‚ÄčOn 11/23 when GLD fell 2% I said:

  • Wait before catching the falling knife.
  • 110 can come fast.

Today it's down 1.3% to 111.75. The prognosis is still the same. It's tempting to want to go long it BUT I still fear it would be too early.

Other than the technical aspect of the danger for more downside, I fear the DOLLAR: A rising US Dollar puts downside pressure on Gold.

You've also heard me say that the dollar breakout may not be over. How could it run so long? You can thank the Central Banks for that:

  1. The US Fed is in a tightening cycle (insert joke here) - tight money = strong currency
  2. Whereas the ECB is in the middle of a QE - loose money = weaker currency

So {1} + {2} = Strong Dollar.

Here is a visual to how Gold (GLD) and the US $ move in opposite directions. This is what they call an inverse relationship.